PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.04 – 99.45

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 182

Prediction missed · off by 51.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.8 ±11

1746Team OTTO

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 60.21Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4509Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 30.18Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8865Dacula Droids

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 22.65Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.7 ±10.4

3344Space Dragons

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 21.18Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6705Wildcat5e

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 19.15Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1414IHOT

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 59.12Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1746, 4509, 8865

/ 100 compat

Projected

113 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1746, 4509, 8865

Auto

10.4 10%

Teleop

61.9 57%

Endgame

36.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3344, 6705, 1414

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3344, 6705, 1414

Auto

27.0 28%

Teleop

50.0 51%

Endgame

20.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113pts

Blue projected score99.4pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.6
Score range: 78–134
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 117.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.8Season APEX194.7

10.4Auto27

61.9Teleop50

36.7Endgame20.3

0Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	29
teleop	24	103
endgame	50	50
foul	0	0
total	93	182

Result

Final score

93 – 182

Prediction missed · off by 51.3 pts

Match videos

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