Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
380.57 – 69.45
98%2%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
396 – 50
Prediction correct · off by 17.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.7 ±9.8
Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 93.5Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 21.67Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 265.4Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 121.3 ±12.1
Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 17.21Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 25.53Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 26.71Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1683, 3815, 1833
79
/ 100 compatProjected
380.6 pts
~2.5 RP (district)
Teams: 1683, 3815, 1833
Auto
57.3 15%
Teleop
230.0 61%
Endgame
89.3 24%
Strengths
- · 1833 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5651, 5293, 3318
46
/ 100 compatProjected
69.5 pts
~0.3 RP (district)
Teams: 5651, 5293, 3318
Auto
13.6 20%
Teleop
33.1 49%
Endgame
20.2 30%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.34
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score380.6pts
Blue projected score69.5pts
Red win probability98%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 42%, blue 25%
Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 311.1
- Score range
- 48–402
- Upset likelihood
- 2%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
445.7Season APEX121.3
57.3Auto13.6
230Teleop33.1
89.3Endgame20.2
28Consistency30
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 90 | 12 |
| teleop | 186 | 27 |
| endgame | 120 | 11 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 396 | 50 |
Result
Final score
396 – 50
Prediction correct · off by 17.4 pts
Match videos
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