PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

61.53 – 45.78

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 34

Prediction missed · off by 20.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 139.2 ±11.7

3815NF Raiders

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 24.03Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5219TeknoSquad 5219

Season APEX 67.2Event APEX 34.23Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1795Carver Clutch

Season APEX 25.8Event APEX 3.27Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 108.8 ±12.8

9086Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 27.1Event APEX 13.39Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6712Mountaineers

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 13.32Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9522Archimedes

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 19.07Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3815, 5219, 1795

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3815, 5219, 1795

Auto

9.5 16%

Teleop

35.4 59%

Endgame

15.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9086, 6712, 9522

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9086, 6712, 9522

Auto

21.5 48%

Teleop

15.8 35%

Endgame

7.9 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score61.5pts

Blue projected score45.8pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.8
Score range: 25–83
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 66 vs event baseline 116.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

139.2Season APEX108.8

9.5Auto21.5

35.4Teleop15.8

15Endgame7.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	14
teleop	0	16
endgame	20	4
foul	0	0
total	32	34

Result

Final score

32 – 34

Prediction missed · off by 20.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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