PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.88 – 92.99

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 53.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 100 ±12.2

11174Danes Robotics

Season APEX 32Event APEX 31.31Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3318RoboDragons

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 29.17Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2415WiredCats

Season APEX 19.8Event APEX 10.4Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250 ±10.4

6705Wildcat5e

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 13.65Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4509Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 24.57Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1746Team OTTO

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 54.77Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11174, 3318, 2415

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11174, 3318, 2415

Auto

6.7 9%

Teleop

37.4 52%

Endgame

28.4 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6705, 4509, 1746

/ 100 compat

Projected

93 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6705, 4509, 1746

Auto

19.6 21%

Teleop

48.3 53%

Endgame

23.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.9pts

Blue projected score93pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.1
Score range: 50–114
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 180 vs event baseline 117.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

100Season APEX250

6.7Auto19.6

37.4Teleop48.3

28.4Endgame23.4

50Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	9
teleop	15	75
endgame	0	56
foul	0	15
total	25	155

Result

Final score

25 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 53.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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