PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.93 – 147.89

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 50.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 131.1 ±12.1

5651Maynard Jackson RoboJags

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 20Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9561Dawson Dinos

Season APEX 58Event APEX 16.81Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5293Metal Crusaders

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 26.12Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.3 ±11.7

8849Storm Robotics

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX -20.1Rank 30Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1683Techno Titans

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 99.04Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10482BuzzBots

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 68.95Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5651, 9561, 5293

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5651, 9561, 5293

Auto

18.9 32%

Teleop

17.1 29%

Endgame

24.0 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8849, 1683, 10482

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8849, 1683, 10482

Auto

29.4 20%

Teleop

85.1 59%

Endgame

29.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.9pts

Blue projected score147.9pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85
Score range: 42–169
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 110 vs event baseline 115.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

131.1Season APEX200.3

18.9Auto29.4

17.1Teleop85.1

24Endgame29.8

33Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	9
teleop	23	59
endgame	7	5
foul	0	0
total	37	73

Result

Final score

37 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 50.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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