PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.84 – 172.6

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

13 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 58.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 123.9 ±12.2

3318RoboDragons

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 35.64Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9522Archimedes

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 26.37Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4459LeoTechs

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -6.17Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.2 ±10.5

10482BuzzBots

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 61.15Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 101.73Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9561Dawson Dinos

Season APEX 58Event APEX 9.72Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3318, 9522, 4459

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3318, 9522, 4459

Auto

5.1 9%

Teleop

23.3 41%

Endgame

27.9 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10482, 4189, 9561

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10482, 4189, 9561

Auto

28.9 16%

Teleop

104.8 60%

Endgame

41.8 24%

Strengths

· 4189 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.8pts

Blue projected score172.6pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -116.8
Score range: 36–193
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 112.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

123.9Season APEX354.2

5.1Auto28.9

23.3Teleop104.8

27.9Endgame41.8

18Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	24
teleop	1	160
endgame	3	62
foul	0	0
total	13	246

Result

Final score

13 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 58.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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