PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

64.28 – 19.59

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 50.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 124.9 ±11.7

3344Space Dragons

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 16.12Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3815NF Raiders

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 27.97Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6712Mountaineers

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 20.19Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 116.3 ±12.2

4509Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 24.63Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5293Metal Crusaders

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 20.1Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8849Storm Robotics

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX -25.14Rank 30Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3344, 3815, 6712

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3344, 3815, 6712

Auto

14.6 22%

Teleop

28.2 42%

Endgame

24.9 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4509, 5293, 8849

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4509, 5293, 8849

Auto

9.5 60%

Teleop

4.2 26%

Endgame

2.2 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64.3pts

Blue projected score19.6pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.7
Score range: 0–84
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 115 vs event baseline 113.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

124.9Season APEX116.3

14.6Auto9.5

28.2Teleop4.2

24.9Endgame2.2

0Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	17
teleop	3	43
endgame	0	6
foul	15	20
total	29	86

Result

Final score

29 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 50.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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