PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.64 – 232.76

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 133.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.6 ±10.4

8080Sequoyah High School Robotics

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 65.24Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4509Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 27.59Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8577Georgia Cyber Academy Champions

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 39.81Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.8 ±12.4

8849Storm Robotics

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX -26.63Rank 30Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4459LeoTechs

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -4.82Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 264.21Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8080, 4509, 8577

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8080, 4509, 8577

Auto

17.6 13%

Teleop

83.2 63%

Endgame

30.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8849, 4459, 1833

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8849, 4459, 1833

Auto

53.2 23%

Teleop

132.5 58%

Endgame

43.7 19%

Strengths

· 1833 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.6pts

Blue projected score232.8pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100.1
Score range: 111–255
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 99 vs event baseline 124.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.6Season APEX350.8

17.6Auto53.2

83.2Teleop132.5

30.7Endgame43.7

0Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	18
teleop	30	33
endgame	12	5
foul	0	0
total	43	56

Result

Final score

43 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 133.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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