PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.52 – 99.79

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

84 – 56

Prediction missed · off by 29.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.8 ±11

11174Danes Robotics

Season APEX 32Event APEX 29.87Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4509Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 23.97Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8815Barnstormers

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX 15.68Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 122.9 ±11.6

5293Metal Crusaders

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 26.33Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3815NF Raiders

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 33.62Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3318RoboDragons

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 39.84Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11174, 4509, 8815

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11174, 4509, 8815

Auto

8.7 13%

Teleop

38.0 57%

Endgame

20.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5293, 3815, 3318

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5293, 3815, 3318

Auto

3.3 3%

Teleop

59.4 60%

Endgame

36.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.5pts

Blue projected score99.8pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.3
Score range: 50–120
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 140 vs event baseline 111.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136.8Season APEX122.9

8.7Auto3.3

38Teleop59.4

20.3Endgame36.4

27Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	10
teleop	51	22
endgame	16	24
foul	0	0
total	84	56

Result

Final score

84 – 56

Prediction missed · off by 29.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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