PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

98.52 – 80.78

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

178 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 64.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.1 ±11.2

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 97.09Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3344Space Dragons

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 13.1Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4459LeoTechs

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -11.67Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.8 ±11.7

6705Wildcat5e

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 12.23Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6712Mountaineers

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 18.64Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1414IHOT

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 49.91Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4189, 3344, 4459

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4189, 3344, 4459

Auto

21.3 21%

Teleop

59.8 58%

Endgame

22.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6705, 6712, 1414

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6705, 6712, 1414

Auto

24.1 30%

Teleop

45.7 56%

Endgame

11.5 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.5pts

Blue projected score80.8pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.7
Score range: 61–119
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 110.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.1Season APEX184.8

21.3Auto24.1

59.8Teleop45.7

22.1Endgame11.5

44Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	52
teleop	72	54
endgame	61	24
foul	0	0
total	178	130

Result

Final score

178 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 64.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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