PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

302.71 – 111.76

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

384 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 67.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 398.1 ±10.5

3815NF Raiders

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 25.53Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3318RoboDragons

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 34.3Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 242.88Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.2 ±11.7

1746Team OTTO

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 44.38Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9086Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 27.1Event APEX 8.36Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8080Sequoyah High School Robotics

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 59.02Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3815, 3318, 1833

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3815, 3318, 1833

Auto

46.9 16%

Teleop

191.8 64%

Endgame

62.8 21%

Strengths

· 1833 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1746, 9086, 8080

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1746, 9086, 8080

Auto

21.8 19%

Teleop

52.8 46%

Endgame

39.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score302.7pts

Blue projected score111.8pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 191
Score range: 93–322
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 549 vs event baseline 107.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

398.1Season APEX219.2

46.9Auto21.8

191.8Teleop52.8

62.8Endgame39.6

28Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	26
teleop	237	103
endgame	136	36
foul	0	0
total	384	165

Result

Final score

384 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 67.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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