PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.9 – 143.74

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

121 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 158.2 ±10.4

3344Space Dragons

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 11.62Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 52.65Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11174Danes Robotics

Season APEX 32Event APEX 28.63Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.7 ±11.7

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 99.94Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2415WiredCats

Season APEX 19.8Event APEX 17.31Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5293Metal Crusaders

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 26.49Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3344, 6340, 11174

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3344, 6340, 11174

Auto

21.5 24%

Teleop

40.4 45%

Endgame

28.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4189, 2415, 5293

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4189, 2415, 5293

Auto

22.7 16%

Teleop

93.0 65%

Endgame

27.0 19%

Strengths

· 4189 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.9pts

Blue projected score143.7pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.8
Score range: 74–163
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 106.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

158.2Season APEX258.7

21.5Auto22.7

40.4Teleop93

28.1Endgame27

10Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	39
teleop	49	78
endgame	59	33
foul	0	0
total	121	150

Result

Final score

121 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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