PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

162.67 – 16.76

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

115 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.6 ±11

9561Dawson Dinos

Season APEX 58Event APEX 14.78Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1414IHOT

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 56.32Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1683Techno Titans

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 91.57Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 83.4 ±13.9

6712Mountaineers

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 19.59Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9582HHS NASA Snaggbotics

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 5.9Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4459LeoTechs

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -8.73Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9561, 1414, 1683

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9561, 1414, 1683

Auto

25.7 16%

Teleop

96.2 59%

Endgame

40.5 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6712, 9582, 4459

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6712, 9582, 4459

Auto

17.0 91%

Teleop

-3.7 0%

Endgame

5.3 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.19 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162.7pts

Blue projected score16.8pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 145.9
Score range: -3–183
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 108.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.6Season APEX83.4

25.7Auto17

96.2Teleop-3.7

40.5Endgame5.3

90Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	15
teleop	38	13
endgame	65	2
foul	0	0
total	115	30

Result

Final score

115 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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