PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

4.36 – 57.86

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

132 – 17

Prediction missed · off by 84.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 154.7 ±11.7

3815NF Raiders

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 9.89Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8080Sequoyah High School Robotics

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 44.51Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8849Storm Robotics

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX -50.04Rank 30Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 93.8 ±13.3

2415WiredCats

Season APEX 19.8Event APEX 21.41Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3318RoboDragons

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 41.7Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1795Carver Clutch

Season APEX 25.8Event APEX -5.25Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3815, 8080, 8849

/ 100 compat

Projected

4.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3815, 8080, 8849

Auto

0.5 7%

Teleop

13.1 100%

Endgame

-6.0 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2415, 3318, 1795

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2415, 3318, 1795

Auto

2.9 5%

Teleop

44.0 73%

Endgame

13.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score4.4pts

Blue projected score57.9pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.5
Score range: -16–78
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 109.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

154.7Season APEX93.8

0.5Auto2.9

13.1Teleop44

-6Endgame13.3

121Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	7
teleop	80	2
endgame	29	8
foul	0	0
total	132	17

Result

Final score

132 – 17

Prediction missed · off by 84.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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