PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

68.29 – 48.51

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

43 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.3 ±11.6

5219TeknoSquad 5219

Season APEX 67.2Event APEX 28.31Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8815Barnstormers

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX 18.5Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8865Dacula Droids

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 21.48Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 128.1 ±12.2

1795Carver Clutch

Season APEX 25.8Event APEX -0.92Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3344Space Dragons

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 37.43Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9561Dawson Dinos

Season APEX 58Event APEX 12Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5219, 8815, 8865

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5219, 8815, 8865

Auto

12.3 19%

Teleop

29.3 45%

Endgame

23.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1795, 3344, 9561

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1795, 3344, 9561

Auto

6.6 14%

Teleop

22.6 47%

Endgame

18.6 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.3pts

Blue projected score48.5pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.8
Score range: 27–90
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 74 vs event baseline 124.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153.3Season APEX128.1

12.3Auto6.6

29.3Teleop22.6

23.7Endgame18.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	8
teleop	29	12
endgame	0	11
foul	0	0
total	43	31

Result

Final score

43 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 21.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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