PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.67 – 130.27

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 127 ±11.6

11174Danes Robotics

Season APEX 32Event APEX 34.24Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8865Dacula Droids

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 9.06Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5651Maynard Jackson RoboJags

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 26.37Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.4 ±11

10482BuzzBots

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 57.83Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 52.52Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8815Barnstormers

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX 19.92Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11174, 8865, 5651

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11174, 8865, 5651

Auto

26.5 39%

Teleop

21.3 32%

Endgame

19.6 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10482, 6340, 8815

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10482, 6340, 8815

Auto

26.5 20%

Teleop

77.5 60%

Endgame

26.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.7pts

Blue projected score130.3pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60.6
Score range: 50–150
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 110.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

127Season APEX203.4

26.5Auto26.5

21.3Teleop77.5

19.6Endgame26.2

36Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	31
teleop	22	79
endgame	11	35
foul	0	15
total	43	160

Result

Final score

43 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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