PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.88 – 99.06

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

113 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 29 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.9 ±10.4

3344Space Dragons

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 3.88Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1746Team OTTO

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 42.94Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9522Archimedes

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 30.06Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 158.6 ±12.8

4459LeoTechs

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -7.82Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1683Techno Titans

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 88.81Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6712Mountaineers

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 18.07Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3344, 1746, 9522

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3344, 1746, 9522

Auto

18.4 24%

Teleop

21.3 28%

Endgame

36.6 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4459, 1683, 6712

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4459, 1683, 6712

Auto

21.5 21%

Teleop

49.5 49%

Endgame

29.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.9pts

Blue projected score99.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.2
Score range: 58–118
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 108.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.9Season APEX158.6

18.4Auto21.5

21.3Teleop49.5

36.6Endgame29.4

0Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	31
teleop	47	63
endgame	40	27
foul	0	0
total	113	121

Result

Final score

113 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 29 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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