PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.74 – 122.71

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 74.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 175.8 ±11

5293Metal Crusaders

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 15.88Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8577Georgia Cyber Academy Champions

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 24.49Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6705Wildcat5e

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 11.37Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.2 ±11.2

9582HHS NASA Snaggbotics

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 0.56Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 92.91Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5219TeknoSquad 5219

Season APEX 67.2Event APEX 29.24Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5293, 8577, 6705

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5293, 8577, 6705

Auto

24.0 48%

Teleop

17.9 36%

Endgame

7.9 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9582, 4189, 5219

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9582, 4189, 5219

Auto

19.6 16%

Teleop

83.3 69%

Endgame

17.5 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score51.7pts

Blue projected score122.7pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71
Score range: 33–142
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 106.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

175.8Season APEX298.2

24Auto19.6

17.9Teleop83.3

7.9Endgame17.5

31Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	23
teleop	69	108
endgame	26	55
foul	15	0
total	138	186

Result

Final score

138 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 74.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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