PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.85 – 100.38

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.5 ±11.7

1746Team OTTO

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 57.31Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6712Mountaineers

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 19.06Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10482BuzzBots

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 58.48Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 140.6 ±12.2

9582HHS NASA Snaggbotics

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 7.09Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3318RoboDragons

Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 28.27Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1414IHOT

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 65.02Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1746, 6712, 10482

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1746, 6712, 10482

Auto

26.4 20%

Teleop

72.9 54%

Endgame

35.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9582, 3318, 1414

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9582, 3318, 1414

Auto

11.6 11%

Teleop

62.0 61%

Endgame

27.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134.9pts

Blue projected score100.4pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.5
Score range: 78–157
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 170 vs event baseline 124.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.5Season APEX140.6

26.4Auto11.6

72.9Teleop62

35.9Endgame27.5

0Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	23
teleop	51	33
endgame	30	13
foul	0	0
total	101	69

Result

Final score

101 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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