PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.62 – 56.85

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

108 – 37

Prediction missed · off by 48.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 200.1 ±11.7

4459LeoTechs

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -26.48Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 56.89Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8080Sequoyah High School Robotics

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 1.21Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 91.3 ±12.7

9086Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 27.1Event APEX 26.57Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5293Metal Crusaders

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 34.16Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8815Barnstormers

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX -3.88Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4459, 6340, 8080

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4459, 6340, 8080

Auto

11.5 41%

Teleop

-3.3 0%

Endgame

19.8 71%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9086, 5293, 8815

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9086, 5293, 8815

Auto

9.1 17%

Teleop

26.6 49%

Endgame

18.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score31.6pts

Blue projected score56.9pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.2
Score range: 14–75
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 98.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

200.1Season APEX91.3

11.5Auto9.1

-3.3Teleop26.6

19.8Endgame18.3

141Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	22
teleop	52	10
endgame	38	5
foul	0	0
total	108	37

Result

Final score

108 – 37

Prediction missed · off by 48.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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