PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.95 – 86.09

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.7 ±11.2

6705Wildcat5e

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 37.94Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8849Storm Robotics

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX -52.48Rank 30Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 71.49Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 151.5 ±11

9561Dawson Dinos

Season APEX 58Event APEX 30.44Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3815NF Raiders

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 27.38Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9522Archimedes

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 28.27Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6705, 8849, 4189

/ 100 compat

Projected

57 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6705, 8849, 4189

Auto

14.9 25%

Teleop

43.9 74%

Endgame

0.4 1%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9561, 3815, 9522

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9561, 3815, 9522

Auto

10.2 11%

Teleop

63.9 69%

Endgame

17.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57pts

Blue projected score86.1pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.1
Score range: 38–105
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 64 vs event baseline 103.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.7Season APEX151.5

14.9Auto10.2

43.9Teleop63.9

0.4Endgame17.9

115Consistency133

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	12
teleop	3	15
endgame	1	16
foul	0	0
total	21	43

Result

Final score

21 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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