Qualification · Qualification 21
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
82.69 – 79.07
51%49%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
75 – 64
Prediction correct · off by 11.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 142.2 ±12.2
Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 34.19Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 25.8Event APEX 1.7Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 46.8Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.5 ±12.2
Season APEX 48.2Event APEX 35.03Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 32.33Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 38Event APEX 11.71Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5651, 1795, 1414
65
/ 100 compatProjected
82.7 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 5651, 1795, 1414
Auto
16.9 20%
Teleop
47.4 56%
Endgame
19.9 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3318, 1746, 8761
48
/ 100 compatProjected
79.1 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 3318, 1746, 8761
Auto
6.8 9%
Teleop
35.5 47%
Endgame
33.8 44%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.34
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score82.7pts
Blue projected score79.1pts
Red win probability51%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 29%, blue 31%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 3.6
- Score range
- 62–100
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
142.2Season APEX188.5
16.9Auto6.8
47.4Teleop35.5
19.9Endgame33.8
170Consistency89
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 22 | 14 |
| teleop | 49 | 18 |
| endgame | 4 | 32 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 75 | 64 |
Result
Final score
75 – 64
Prediction correct · off by 11.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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