PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

13.8 – 45.27

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 13 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 106.2 ±13.3

4459LeoTechs

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -29.97Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9561Dawson Dinos

Season APEX 58Event APEX 30.69Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2415WiredCats

Season APEX 19.8Event APEX 13.08Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.7 ±10.4

8080Sequoyah High School Robotics

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 11.44Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6705Wildcat5e

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 31.24Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3344Space Dragons

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 2.59Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4459, 9561, 2415

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4459, 9561, 2415

Auto

13.4 100%

Teleop

-1.9 0%

Endgame

0.2 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8080, 6705, 3344

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8080, 6705, 3344

Auto

17.9 40%

Teleop

21.3 47%

Endgame

6.0 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score13.8pts

Blue projected score45.3pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.5
Score range: -4–63
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 85 vs event baseline 98.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

106.2Season APEX212.7

13.4Auto17.9

-1.9Teleop21.3

0.2Endgame6

175Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	25
teleop	1	14
endgame	22	10
foul	0	0
total	36	49

Result

Final score

36 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 13 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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