PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.73 – 145.51

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

113 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 16.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 162.9 ±11.7

2415WiredCats

Season APEX 19.8Event APEX 6.85Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1683Techno Titans

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 88.95Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9522Archimedes

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 14.93Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.5 ±11.2

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 108.25Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9086Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 27.1Event APEX 13.1Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11174Danes Robotics

Season APEX 32Event APEX 24.16Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2415, 1683, 9522

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2415, 1683, 9522

Auto

29.2 27%

Teleop

53.8 49%

Endgame

26.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4189, 9086, 11174

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4189, 9086, 11174

Auto

33.1 23%

Teleop

84.9 58%

Endgame

29.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.7pts

Blue projected score145.5pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.8
Score range: 89–168
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 124.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

162.9Season APEX269.5

29.2Auto33.1

53.8Teleop84.9

26.9Endgame29

30Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	34
teleop	65	44
endgame	30	36
foul	0	0
total	113	114

Result

Final score

113 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 16.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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