PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.59 – 141.72

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

134 – 120

Prediction missed · off by 60.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.9 ±12.2

6712Mountaineers

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX -4.77Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8815Barnstormers

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX -12.42Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1683Techno Titans

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 51.78Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182 ±11.7

4509Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 53.71Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9086Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 27.1Event APEX 19.2Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10482BuzzBots

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 68.81Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6712, 8815, 1683

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6712, 8815, 1683

Auto

18.4 58%

Teleop

14.9 47%

Endgame

-1.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4509, 9086, 10482

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4509, 9086, 10482

Auto

34.6 24%

Teleop

87.8 61%

Endgame

21.5 15%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score34.6pts

Blue projected score141.7pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -107.1
Score range: 18–159
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 96.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.9Season APEX182

18.4Auto34.6

14.9Teleop87.8

-1.4Endgame21.5

156Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	21
teleop	83	73
endgame	46	26
foul	0	0
total	134	120

Result

Final score

134 – 120

Prediction missed · off by 60.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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