PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

13.29 – 107.29

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

17 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 35 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 93.7 ±12.8

9522Archimedes

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 29.49Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1795Carver Clutch

Season APEX 25.8Event APEX 7.34Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9582HHS NASA Snaggbotics

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX -23.54Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 116.2 ±11.7

3815NF Raiders

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 36.42Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11174Danes Robotics

Season APEX 32Event APEX 33.65Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8761AHS TigerByte8761

Season APEX 38Event APEX 37.22Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9522, 1795, 9582

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9522, 1795, 9582

Auto

9.8 58%

Teleop

3.7 22%

Endgame

3.4 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3815, 11174, 8761

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3815, 11174, 8761

Auto

20.3 20%

Teleop

46.9 46%

Endgame

34.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score13.3pts

Blue projected score107.3pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94
Score range: -5–125
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 58 vs event baseline 100.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

93.7Season APEX116.2

9.8Auto20.3

3.7Teleop46.9

3.4Endgame34.9

238Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	17
teleop	0	24
endgame	5	0
foul	0	0
total	17	41

Result

Final score

17 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 35 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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