PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

28.39 – 62.8

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 78.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.2 ±11.6

5293Metal Crusaders

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX -2.88Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8865Dacula Droids

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 5.01Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1746Team OTTO

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 26.26Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.7 ±10.5

5651Maynard Jackson RoboJags

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 5.99Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8577Georgia Cyber Academy Champions

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX -21.01Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 77.82Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5293, 8865, 1746

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5293, 8865, 1746

Auto

1.5 7%

Teleop

9.7 43%

Endgame

11.4 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5651, 8577, 4189

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5651, 8577, 4189

Auto

20.7 33%

Teleop

44.0 71%

Endgame

-2.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score28.4pts

Blue projected score62.8pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.4
Score range: 10–81
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 99.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.2Season APEX323.7

1.5Auto20.7

9.7Teleop44

11.4Endgame-2.6

232Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	30
teleop	36	92
endgame	42	38
foul	0	0
total	89	160

Result

Final score

89 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 78.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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