PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

62.49 – 41.96

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

25 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 91.2 ±12.8

3344Space Dragons

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 20.17Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2415WiredCats

Season APEX 19.8Event APEX 17.43Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9086Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 27.1Event APEX 24.89Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 98.2 ±13.9

1795Carver Clutch

Season APEX 25.8Event APEX -1.33Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8761AHS TigerByte8761

Season APEX 38Event APEX 35.08Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6712Mountaineers

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 8.21Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3344, 2415, 9086

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3344, 2415, 9086

Auto

12.9 20%

Teleop

27.0 43%

Endgame

23.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1795, 8761, 6712

/ 100 compat

Projected

42 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1795, 8761, 6712

Auto

1.5 4%

Teleop

29.3 79%

Endgame

6.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.5pts

Blue projected score42pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.5
Score range: 25–79
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 44 vs event baseline 97.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

91.2Season APEX98.2

12.9Auto1.5

27Teleop29.3

23.3Endgame6.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	15
teleop	9	4
endgame	6	0
foul	0	0
total	25	19

Result

Final score

25 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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