PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

5.93 – 0

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 70 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.8 ±11.7

1414IHOT

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 32.84Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8849Storm Robotics

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX -18.24Rank 30Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1746Team OTTO

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX -8.67Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.6 ±11

8080Sequoyah High School Robotics

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX -2.86Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9522Archimedes

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 0.79Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5293Metal Crusaders

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX -22.76Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1414, 8849, 1746

/ 100 compat

Projected

5.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1414, 8849, 1746

Auto

-1.1 0%

Teleop

4.0 60%

Endgame

3.8 57%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8080, 9522, 5293

/ 100 compat

Projected

-24.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8080, 9522, 5293

Auto

-8.1 31%

Teleop

-14.3 55%

Endgame

-3.8 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score5.9pts

Blue projected score-24.8pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.9
Score range: -18–24
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 99.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.8Season APEX165.6

-1.1Auto-8.1

4Teleop-14.3

3.8Endgame-3.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	12
teleop	25	48
endgame	24	29
foul	0	0
total	57	89

Result

Final score

57 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 70 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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