PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 80.8

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174.6 ±12.2

6712Mountaineers

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 31.85Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8080Sequoyah High School Robotics

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX -38.33Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8865Dacula Droids

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX -7.63Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170.2 ±11.7

2415WiredCats

Season APEX 19.8Event APEX 18.77Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1414IHOT

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 22.71Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6705Wildcat5e

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 39.32Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6712, 8080, 8865

/ 100 compat

Projected

-14.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6712, 8080, 8865

Auto

4.2 0%

Teleop

-17.2 100%

Endgame

-2.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2415, 1414, 6705

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2415, 1414, 6705

Auto

19.6 25%

Teleop

49.6 63%

Endgame

9.1 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-14.1pts

Blue projected score80.8pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.8
Score range: -17–98
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 93.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174.6Season APEX170.2

4.2Auto19.6

-17.2Teleop49.6

-2.4Endgame9.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	23
teleop	22	68
endgame	10	12
foul	0	0
total	43	103

Result

Final score

43 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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