PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.21 – 71.12

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 125

Prediction missed · off by 32 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 148.4 ±12.2

8761AHS TigerByte8761

Season APEX 38Event APEX 22.13Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5293Metal Crusaders

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 25.98Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 55.1Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 169.4 ±11

6705Wildcat5e

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 33.77Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5651Maynard Jackson RoboJags

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 18.48Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3815NF Raiders

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 18.87Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8761, 5293, 6340

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8761, 5293, 6340

Auto

21.8 23%

Teleop

40.1 43%

Endgame

32.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6705, 5651, 3815

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6705, 5651, 3815

Auto

25.0 36%

Teleop

30.8 45%

Endgame

13.0 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.2pts

Blue projected score71.1pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.1
Score range: 49–125
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 124.6.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

148.4Season APEX169.4

21.8Auto25

40.1Teleop30.8

32Endgame13

37Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	24
teleop	41	89
endgame	22	12
foul	15	0
total	93	125

Result

Final score

93 – 125

Prediction missed · off by 32 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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