PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

369.54 – 139.36

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

390 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.7 ±9.8

3815NF Raiders

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 18.11Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1683Techno Titans

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 87.97Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 263.46Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.7 ±10.4

3344Space Dragons

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 38.51Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6705Wildcat5e

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 34.62Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1414IHOT

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 66.23Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3815, 1683, 1833

/ 100 compat

Projected

369.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3815, 1683, 1833

Auto

73.7 20%

Teleop

202.7 55%

Endgame

90.0 25%

Strengths

· 1833 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3344, 6705, 1414

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3344, 6705, 1414

Auto

28.2 21%

Teleop

79.0 58%

Endgame

27.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score369.5pts

Blue projected score139.4pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 230.2
Score range: 117–392
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 499 vs event baseline 122.9.

← Previous

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.7Season APEX194.7

73.7Auto28.2

202.7Teleop79

90Endgame27.9

0Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	32
teleop	224	50
endgame	48	12
foul	15	15
total	390	109

Result

Final score

390 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 pts

Match videos

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