PCH District Gainesville Event presented by Honeywell

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

377.68 – 139.4

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

315 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 33 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.7 ±9.8

3815NF Raiders

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 20.78Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1683Techno Titans

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 90.84Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 266.06Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.7 ±10.4

3344Space Dragons

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 38.23Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6705Wildcat5e

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 34.82Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1414IHOT

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 66.35Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3815, 1683, 1833

/ 100 compat

Projected

377.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3815, 1683, 1833

Auto

76.8 21%

Teleop

206.6 55%

Endgame

90.7 24%

Strengths

· 1833 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3344, 6705, 1414

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.4 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3344, 6705, 1414

Auto

28.6 21%

Teleop

79.1 58%

Endgame

27.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score377.7pts

Blue projected score139.4pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 238.3
Score range: 117–400
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 451 vs event baseline 121.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.7Season APEX194.7

76.8Auto28.6

206.6Teleop79.1

90.7Endgame27.6

0Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	24
teleop	176	77
endgame	86	30
foul	0	5
total	315	136

Result

Final score

315 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 33 pts

Match videos

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