PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

69.01 – 57.47

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.1 ±9.8

8736The Mechanisms

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 34.77Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11214[CY]BEARCATS robotics

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 13.17Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6887Dalton Catabots

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 21.07Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.1 ±10.4

6023DISCBOTS

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 13.35Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5219TeknoSquad 5219

Season APEX 67.2Event APEX 18.83Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

832OSCAR

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 25.29Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8736, 11214, 6887

/ 100 compat

Projected

69 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8736, 11214, 6887

Auto

22.4 35%

Teleop

32.1 50%

Endgame

9.8 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6023, 5219, 832

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6023, 5219, 832

Auto

19.0 35%

Teleop

25.3 46%

Endgame

10.6 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69pts

Blue projected score57.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.5
Score range: 40–86
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 179 vs event baseline 96.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.1Season APEX212.1

22.4Auto19

32.1Teleop25.3

9.8Endgame10.6

78Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	19
teleop	23	37
endgame	26	12
foul	30	10
total	101	78

Result

Final score

101 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 pts

Match videos

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