PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.56 – 123.58

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 69.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.3 ±9.3

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 80.38Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2974Walton Robotics

Season APEX 230.2Event APEX 88.92Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6905Raiders of the ARC- TEAR-A-BYTE

Season APEX 40Event APEX 9.26Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.7 ±10.7

4730Terminators

Season APEX 34.1Event APEX 22.76Rank 26Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 53.04Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7451AvengerRobotics

Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 47.78Rank 5Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6829, 2974, 6905

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6829, 2974, 6905

Auto

25.1 14%

Teleop

103.3 59%

Endgame

47.2 27%

Strengths

· 2974 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4730, 9477, 7451

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4730, 9477, 7451

Auto

14.3 12%

Teleop

77.0 64%

Endgame

28.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score178.6pts

Blue projected score123.6pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55
Score range: 107–196
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 94.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.3Season APEX274.7

25.1Auto14.3

103.3Teleop77

47.2Endgame28.9

0Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	38
teleop	133	101
endgame	103	30
foul	0	10
total	263	179

Result

Final score

263 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 69.9 pts

Match videos

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