PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

207.61 – 71.86

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

155 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 547 ±9.3

5900The Fighting Mongooses

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 11.5Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6919The Commodores

Season APEX 232.5Event APEX 96.37Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 99.74Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.5 ±11.7

8849Storm Robotics

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 11.47Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4026Decatur Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 40.35Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8866Innovation Robotics

Season APEX 90.7Event APEX 20.04Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5900, 6919, 1002

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5900, 6919, 1002

Auto

37.8 18%

Teleop

109.9 54%

Endgame

57.2 28%

Strengths

· 1002 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8849, 4026, 8866

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8849, 4026, 8866

Auto

16.9 25%

Teleop

38.2 55%

Endgame

13.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score207.6pts

Blue projected score71.9pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 135.8
Score range: 55–225
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 94.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

547Season APEX214.5

37.8Auto16.9

109.9Teleop38.2

57.2Endgame13.8

19Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	17
teleop	84	44
endgame	28	43
foul	0	0
total	155	104

Result

Final score

155 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 pts

Match videos

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