PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.65 – 72.81

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

228 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 547 ±9.3

5900The Fighting Mongooses

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 11.17Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6919The Commodores

Season APEX 232.5Event APEX 95.86Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 99.62Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.1 ±9.8

8736The Mechanisms

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 36.02Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6887Dalton Catabots

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 22.5Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11214[CY]BEARCATS robotics

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 14.29Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5900, 6919, 1002

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5900, 6919, 1002

Auto

40.1 20%

Teleop

109.5 53%

Endgame

55.7 27%

Strengths

· 1002 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8736, 6887, 11214

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.8 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8736, 6887, 11214

Auto

22.2 34%

Teleop

30.7 47%

Endgame

11.8 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score206.7pts

Blue projected score72.8pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 133.8
Score range: 55–225
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 98.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

547Season APEX223.1

40.1Auto22.2

109.5Teleop30.7

55.7Endgame11.8

0Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	26
teleop	104	47
endgame	75	16
foul	0	0
total	228	89

Result

Final score

228 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 pts

Match videos

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