PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

54.26 – 32.34

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 147

Prediction missed · off by 83.2 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.3 ±11.2

5900The Fighting Mongooses

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 6.56Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9770Victory Church of Christ Robo Knights

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 12.65Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6919The Commodores

Season APEX 232.5Event APEX 35.05Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.4 ±11.7

4730Terminators

Season APEX 34.1Event APEX 9.52Rank 26Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1033810338 - CircuitMakers

Season APEX 32Event APEX 25.01Rank 17Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX -2.19Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5900, 9770, 6919

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5900, 9770, 6919

Auto

5.2 10%

Teleop

27.0 50%

Endgame

21.7 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4730, 10338, 1002

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4730, 10338, 1002

Auto

1.9 6%

Teleop

10.0 31%

Endgame

20.2 63%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.3pts

Blue projected score32.3pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.9
Score range: 23–63
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 51.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.3Season APEX331.4

5.2Auto1.9

27Teleop10

21.7Endgame20.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	25
teleop	30	83
endgame	45	39
foul	15	0
total	106	147

Result

Final score

106 – 147

Prediction missed · off by 83.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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