PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

21.33 – 67.75

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 55.7 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 170.3 ±11.7

10376Plutonium Panthers

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 7.71Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8866Innovation Robotics

Season APEX 90.7Event APEX 7.14Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6905Raiders of the ARC- TEAR-A-BYTE

Season APEX 40Event APEX 6.48Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.3 ±11.7

3329Wildbots

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 23.18Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6712Mountaineers

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 7.71Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9480The Gear Bears

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 36.86Rank 15Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10376, 8866, 6905

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10376, 8866, 6905

Auto

1.8 8%

Teleop

11.3 53%

Endgame

8.1 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3329, 6712, 9480

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3329, 6712, 9480

Auto

-0.2 0%

Teleop

38.1 57%

Endgame

28.4 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score21.3pts

Blue projected score67.8pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.4
Score range: 12–77
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 48.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

170.3Season APEX189.3

1.8Auto-0.2

11.3Teleop38.1

8.1Endgame28.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	17
teleop	65	20
endgame	33	5
foul	0	0
total	107	42

Result

Final score

107 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 55.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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