Qualification · Qualification 7
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
39.84 – 52.39
46%54%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
40 – 20
Prediction missed · off by 16.3 points
Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.4 ±11.2
Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 9.43Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 23.14Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 38Event APEX 7.27Rank 25Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 127.1 ±11.7
Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 31.71Rank 27Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 19.43Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 1.25Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6887, 9477, 8761
57
/ 100 compatProjected
39.8 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 6887, 9477, 8761
Auto
5.1 13%
Teleop
19.2 48%
Endgame
15.5 39%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 17%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5608, 4112, 8849
60
/ 100 compatProjected
52.4 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 5608, 4112, 8849
Auto
3.9 8%
Teleop
19.5 41%
Endgame
24.7 51%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 17%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.34
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score39.8pts
Blue projected score52.4pts
Red win probability46%
Event bonus sample154alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 17%, blue 23%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -12.5
- Score range
- 31–61
- Upset likelihood
- 46%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
199.4Season APEX127.1
5.1Auto3.9
19.2Teleop19.5
15.5Endgame24.7
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 9 | 14 |
| teleop | 24 | 6 |
| endgame | 7 | 0 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 40 | 20 |
Result
Final score
40 – 20
Prediction missed · off by 16.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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