PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.55 – 142.31

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

112 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 44.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215 ±10.4

6772The Marist Manta Rays

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 47.03Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

832OSCAR

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 15.48Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5219TeknoSquad 5219

Season APEX 67.2Event APEX 7.04Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.9 ±11.2

6712Mountaineers

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 2.23Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6887Dalton Catabots

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 24.64Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 115.44Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6772, 832, 5219

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6772, 832, 5219

Auto

24.6 38%

Teleop

21.3 33%

Endgame

19.1 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6712, 6887, 1002

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6712, 6887, 1002

Auto

27.0 19%

Teleop

79.0 56%

Endgame

34.5 25%

Strengths

· 1002 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.6pts

Blue projected score142.3pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72.8
Score range: 53–159
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 94.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215Season APEX363.9

24.6Auto27

21.3Teleop79

19.1Endgame34.5

21Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	42
teleop	35	28
endgame	41	26
foul	15	0
total	112	96

Result

Final score

112 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 44.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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