PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.54 – 75.07

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

42 – 23

Prediction missed · off by 36.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.9 ±12.4

7451AvengerRobotics

Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 47.87Rank 5Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9770Victory Church of Christ Robo Knights

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 5.49Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7514EVE Robotics

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 9.18Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.2 ±10.4

832OSCAR

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 26Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6023DISCBOTS

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 14.5Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1746Team OTTO

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 34.57Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7451, 9770, 7514

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7451, 9770, 7514

Auto

14.8 26%

Teleop

30.2 52%

Endgame

12.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 832, 6023, 1746

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 832, 6023, 1746

Auto

21.6 30%

Teleop

37.6 52%

Endgame

12.7 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.5pts

Blue projected score75.1pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.5
Score range: 44–94
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-18
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 65 vs event baseline 103.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.9Season APEX247.2

14.8Auto21.6

30.2Teleop37.6

12.7Endgame12.7

29Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	18
teleop	23	2
endgame	6	3
foul	0	0
total	42	23

Result

Final score

42 – 23

Prediction missed · off by 36.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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