PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.55 – 132.16

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

139 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 46.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.4 ±11.2

9770Victory Church of Christ Robo Knights

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 4.27Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8736The Mechanisms

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 31.75Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7451AvengerRobotics

Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 47.53Rank 5Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.3 ±9.8

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 74.35Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4112EagleBots

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 17.87Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4026Decatur Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 39.94Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9770, 8736, 7451

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9770, 8736, 7451

Auto

13.8 17%

Teleop

45.3 57%

Endgame

20.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6829, 4112, 4026

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6829, 4112, 4026

Auto

13.9 10%

Teleop

80.3 60%

Endgame

39.0 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.6pts

Blue projected score132.2pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.6
Score range: 67–149
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 91.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.4Season APEX332.3

13.8Auto13.9

45.3Teleop80.3

20.9Endgame39

29Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	26
teleop	36	93
endgame	48	51
foul	35	0
total	139	170

Result

Final score

139 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 46.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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