PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.72 – 52.12

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

84 – 35

Prediction missed · off by 28.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.1 ±10.4

6887Dalton Catabots

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 22.23Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8866Innovation Robotics

Season APEX 90.7Event APEX 17.64Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5219TeknoSquad 5219

Season APEX 67.2Event APEX 4.85Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.9 ±10.4

832OSCAR

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 17.74Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5608Lassiter Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 7.52Rank 27Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5900The Fighting Mongooses

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 26.86Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6887, 8866, 5219

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6887, 8866, 5219

Auto

13.7 34%

Teleop

13.3 33%

Endgame

13.4 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 832, 5608, 5900

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 832, 5608, 5900

Auto

17.5 37%

Teleop

17.4 36%

Endgame

12.8 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.7pts

Blue projected score52.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.4
Score range: 28–69
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 119 vs event baseline 92.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.1Season APEX160.9

13.7Auto17.5

13.3Teleop17.4

13.4Endgame12.8

50Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	16
teleop	51	4
endgame	5	10
foul	5	5
total	84	35

Result

Final score

84 – 35

Prediction missed · off by 28.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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