PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.18 – 105.06

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 151.2 ±11.7

6905Raiders of the ARC- TEAR-A-BYTE

Season APEX 40Event APEX 4.22Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3329Wildbots

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 43.41Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4730Terminators

Season APEX 34.1Event APEX 21.55Rank 26Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275 ±9.3

1746Team OTTO

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 33.79Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 54.83Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11214[CY]BEARCATS robotics

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 16.44Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6905, 3329, 4730

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6905, 3329, 4730

Auto

6.8 11%

Teleop

42.0 69%

Endgame

12.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1746, 9477, 11214

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1746, 9477, 11214

Auto

17.4 17%

Teleop

56.9 56%

Endgame

26.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.2pts

Blue projected score105.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.9
Score range: 52–122
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 92.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

151.2Season APEX275

6.8Auto17.4

42Teleop56.9

12Endgame26.8

5Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	21
teleop	40	55
endgame	20	11
foul	5	0
total	79	87

Result

Final score

79 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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