PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.42 – 71.75

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

53 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 16.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.2 ±11.7

9480The Gear Bears

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 5.28Rank 15Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8736The Mechanisms

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 30.79Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8761AHS TigerByte8761

Season APEX 38Event APEX 3.35Rank 25Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.7 ±11.1

1033810338 - CircuitMakers

Season APEX 32Event APEX 21.17Rank 17Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7451AvengerRobotics

Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 49.52Rank 5Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7676THS RoboDogs

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 1.06Rank 31Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9480, 8736, 8761

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9480, 8736, 8761

Auto

12.6 33%

Teleop

20.3 52%

Endgame

5.8 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10338, 7451, 7676

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10338, 7451, 7676

Auto

14.6 20%

Teleop

38.8 53%

Endgame

20.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score39.4pts

Blue projected score71.8pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.3
Score range: 22–89
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 106 vs event baseline 93.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.2Season APEX206.7

12.6Auto14.6

20.3Teleop38.8

5.8Endgame20.5

75Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	14
teleop	22	27
endgame	9	12
foul	0	0
total	53	53

Result

Final score

53 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 16.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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