PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128 – 131.07

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 49 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.9 ±11.2

8866Innovation Robotics

Season APEX 90.7Event APEX 12.11Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8849Storm Robotics

Season APEX 18.7Event APEX 14.38Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6919The Commodores

Season APEX 232.5Event APEX 101.51Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 395.6 ±9.8

1746Team OTTO

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 28.74Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2974Walton Robotics

Season APEX 230.2Event APEX 86.16Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4112EagleBots

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 16.17Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8866, 8849, 6919

/ 100 compat

Projected

128 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8866, 8849, 6919

Auto

21.0 17%

Teleop

65.5 53%

Endgame

37.5 30%

Strengths

· 6919 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1746, 2974, 4112

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1746, 2974, 4112

Auto

25.5 21%

Teleop

62.7 51%

Endgame

35.7 29%

Strengths

· 2974 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128pts

Blue projected score131.1pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.1
Score range: 112–147
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 357 vs event baseline 90.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.9Season APEX395.6

21Auto25.5

65.5Teleop62.7

37.5Endgame35.7

31Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	23
teleop	95	80
endgame	39	65
foul	15	0
total	189	168

Result

Final score

189 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 49 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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