PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

78.02 – 57.15

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

84 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 8.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180 ±11.7

6772The Marist Manta Rays

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 45.76Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6887Dalton Catabots

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 21.39Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6712Mountaineers

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 10.87Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 121.2 ±11

1033810338 - CircuitMakers

Season APEX 32Event APEX 24.62Rank 17Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5900The Fighting Mongooses

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 28.44Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6905Raiders of the ARC- TEAR-A-BYTE

Season APEX 40Event APEX 4.09Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6772, 6887, 6712

/ 100 compat

Projected

78 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6772, 6887, 6712

Auto

25.1 34%

Teleop

35.2 47%

Endgame

14.6 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10338, 5900, 6905

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10338, 5900, 6905

Auto

13.0 22%

Teleop

25.7 44%

Endgame

19.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78pts

Blue projected score57.2pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.9
Score range: 41–94
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-18
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 131 vs event baseline 91.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180Season APEX121.2

25.1Auto13

35.2Teleop25.7

14.6Endgame19.7

70Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	14
teleop	34	21
endgame	20	12
foul	0	0
total	84	47

Result

Final score

84 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 8.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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