PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

187.73 – 37.83

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 472.1 ±9.3

2974Walton Robotics

Season APEX 230.2Event APEX 93.94Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 85.1Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9480The Gear Bears

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 8.69Rank 15Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.2 ±12.8

6712Mountaineers

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX -3.65Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5219TeknoSquad 5219

Season APEX 67.2Event APEX 18.15Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10376Plutonium Panthers

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 23.33Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2974, 6829, 9480

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2974, 6829, 9480

Auto

25.6 14%

Teleop

100.1 55%

Endgame

56.3 31%

Strengths

· 2974 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6712, 5219, 10376

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.8 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6712, 5219, 10376

Auto

14.8 39%

Teleop

15.9 42%

Endgame

7.6 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score187.7pts

Blue projected score37.8pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 149.9
Score range: 19–207
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 103.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

472.1Season APEX141.2

25.6Auto14.8

100.1Teleop15.9

56.3Endgame7.6

36Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	0
teleop	83	18
endgame	40	9
foul	5	0
total	129	27

Result

Final score

129 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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