PCH District Dalton Event presented by Shaw Industries

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.77 – 83.43

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.1 ±11.2

9770Victory Church of Christ Robo Knights

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 1.86Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 57.99Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5608Lassiter Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 6.92Rank 27Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 186.1 ±11.7

10376Plutonium Panthers

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 29.69Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4112EagleBots

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 19.11Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8736The Mechanisms

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 34.63Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9770, 9477, 5608

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9770, 9477, 5608

Auto

9.8 15%

Teleop

38.3 60%

Endgame

16.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10376, 4112, 8736

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10376, 4112, 8736

Auto

14.0 18%

Teleop

42.7 53%

Endgame

23.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score66.8pts

Blue projected score83.4pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.7
Score range: 50–100
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-18
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 109 vs event baseline 92.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.1Season APEX186.1

9.8Auto14

38.3Teleop42.7

16.2Endgame23.2

44Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	8
teleop	22	36
endgame	11	11
foul	5	0
total	54	55

Result

Final score

54 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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